The wind howls across the Ayrshire coast, and already the golf world’s eyes are turning toward Scotland. Royal Troon will host The Open Championship in 2026, and honestly? The speculation machine is already churning at full speed.
The Beast of Troon Awaits
I’m calling it now, this tournament could produce the most unexpected winner we’ve seen in years. Troon’s a beast. Those who played there in 2016 still wake up in cold sweats thinking about the 11th hole.
The Postage Stamp might be just 123 yards, but it’s eaten more scorecards than a paper shredder. Ask Rory McIlroy about his triple bogey there. As Henrik Stenson once said after his 2016 victory: “This course demands respect every single shot. One moment of arrogance and Troon will humble you.”
Current Favorites and Their Chances
Let’s talk favorites first, because everyone loves a safe bet before reality smashes it to pieces. Scottie Scheffler sits atop the world rankings like he owns the place. Guy’s been playing golf like he discovered some cheat code nobody else knows about.
The open championship odds will probably favor the usual suspects initially. Bookmakers love their patterns. They’ll put Scheffler at something like 8/1, maybe McIlroy at 12/1 because, well, because he’s Rory and people keep hoping. Viktor Hovland might sneak in at 14/1. Jon Rahm? Depends if his LIV situation sorts itself out.
Here’s what the top contenders bring to the table:
- Scottie Scheffler: World number one, incredible ball-striking, but links inexperience could hurt him
- Rory McIlroy: Four-time major winner desperately seeking that elusive fifth, knows links golf inside out
- Viktor Hovland: Scandinavian roots perfect for bad weather, improving every year
- Jon Rahm: Former world number one with the power game to tackle Troon’s length
- Xander Schauffele: Mr. Consistency, always lurking near the top of leaderboards
The Rising Stars Ready to Strike
Here’s where things get spicy. Ludvig Åberg. Remember that name. Kid’s trajectory is insane. Turned pro in June 2023 and nearly won the Masters less than a year later. By 2026? He’ll either be world number one or completely burned out from the hype. No middle ground with phenoms like him.
“The young guys don’t carry the scar tissue we do,” Jack Nicklaus recently observed about the new generation. “Sometimes that’s exactly what you need to win a major.”
Then there’s Tom Kim. Twenty-two years old now, which means he’ll be hitting his prime right when Troon comes calling. The energy this guy brings, it’s like watching a caffeine overdose play golf. Three PGA Tour wins before turning 22? That’s not normal.
Dark Horses Who Could Shock Everyone
Dark horses make Opens memorable though. Cameron Young keeps finishing second in everything, and eventually, that dam breaks. He bombs it off the tee, which at Troon could mean reaching par 5s in two or finding gorse bushes nobody’s seen since 1973.
My dark horse picks for 2026:
- Robert MacIntyre: Scottish player at a Scottish Open, crowd support matters immensely
- Sungjae Im: Grinding machine with no weaknesses, perfect for survival golf
- Nicolai Højgaard: Twin power, both brothers improving rapidly
- Cameron Young: Power game suits modern Open venues, due for a breakthrough
- Keita Nakajima: Japanese golf is surging, could follow Hideki’s blueprint
Course Conditions Will Define Everything
The weather will decide half this tournament before anyone hits a shot. Troon in July can be glorious with 18°C, light breeze, sun breaking through clouds. Or it can be biblical. The R&A’s official website keeps historical weather data if you’re into that sort of masochism.
Course setup will be fascinating. They’ll probably stretch it beyond the 7,190 yards used in 2016. But length means nothing if you’re playing your approach from knee-high fescue. As Tom Watson famously said: “In Scotland, the golf course is the defender, and par is sacred.”
Why Experience Might Not Matter
I think experience matters less than people assume. Sure, knowing the course helps. But Opens create their own weird ecosystem. Young guys without scar tissue sometimes thrive because they don’t know what they should fear.
Look at recent history. Collin Morikawa won on debut in 2021. Shane Lowry was hardly Mr. Consistent before 2019. Cameron Smith came from nowhere to win at St. Andrews. The pattern? There isn’t one.
The X-Factor: Equipment Changes
The X-factor nobody’s discussing? Equipment changes coming down the pipeline. Rumor mill says the R&A might roll back the ball by 2026. Suddenly everyone’s hitting it 20 yards shorter.
That changes everything. Club selection, course strategy, who has advantages where. Shorter hitters might actually benefit if the bombers lose their edge. It’s a complete reset of the chess board.
Wild Predictions for 2026
My prediction? Someone outside the top 20 wins it. Not trying to hedge, I genuinely believe the confluence of factors at Troon in 2026 sets up perfectly for chaos. The course is too quirky, the weather too unpredictable.
What to watch for:
- At least one complete meltdown on live TV, probably involving the Railway hole
- A first-time major winner emerging from the chaos
- Weather delays that completely change tournament dynamics
- The Postage Stamp claiming at least three big-name victims
- A Scottish player making the weekend to insane crowd reactions
The Mental Game at Troon
“The Open Championship isn’t won, it’s survived,” Peter Thomson once said, and nowhere is that truer than Troon. The mental fortitude required is off the charts. You need to accept bad breaks, embrace the wind, and somehow maintain composure when your ball takes a 90-degree bounce.
Players are probably already scheduling reconnaissance trips, studying wind patterns, figuring out which shots they need to develop. The smart ones are practicing in terrible weather right now, learning to love the suffering.
Final Thoughts
The Claret Jug does weird things to people. It’s not just another trophy. It represents golf’s deepest history, its most primitive challenge: you versus nature, versus yourself.
Will 2026 produce an all-time classic? The ingredients are there. Royal Troon’s ready to bare its teeth. The world’s best will arrive thinking they’re prepared.
They’re not. Nobody ever really is.
One guarantee: whoever lifts that jug on Sunday will have earned it through four days of absolute warfare. The countdown’s already started. Eighteen months might seem far off, but in golf preparation terms, it’s tomorrow.
The stage is set for something special. Troon in 2026 won’t just be a golf tournament. It’ll be theater, drama, heartbreak, and triumph all rolled into 72 holes of links golf at its most brutal and beautiful.
